Much has been made in the media over the last few years of the downwards trend in piracy. Costs to mitigate against the threat have reduced along with the number of companies available to provide the services required.
It is hard to argue with the facts. Since its peak in 2010 and 2011, the number of recorded incidents has certainly been on the decline, with figures this year looking to finish nearly 40% down on 2011. Other than a ‘blip’ in 2015, where the count of incidents was down only about 8% on 2011, this is a steadily growing downwards trend (figure 1, below).
All that said, does this really mean that the threat is decreasing? A recorded piracy incident is quite vague in its definition. A sighting of a suspicious vessel is counted in that number, alongside the hijacking of a tanker.
If we look at only incidents where a vessel was approached (or worse), the trend remains quite similar (figure 2). 2011 still has the highest number of incidents, and this year still sits around 40% down on that figure. A quick glance at the graphs and you might think nothing has changed – in fact not much really has. The peaks and troughs of the graphs are very similar so this still suggests that the overall threat to world shipping is lower now than it was in 2011.
So where does this leave us? Well, the graph below (figure 3) shows how kidnapping had changed since 2011 and this starts to paint an interesting picture.
Figure 3 is interesting because it is the only graph which shows an upwards trend since 2011. In fact, some months in 2015 and 2016 had more kidnappings than recorded in total in 2010 and 2011 combined. It is worth noting, though, that if you include hijackings then the figure for this year is similar to those of 2010 and 2011. This seems to show a change in tactics, perhaps.
To have a fuller picture of this, it can be useful to know where these incidents (hijackings and kidnappings) are occurring geographically (figures 4 and 5).
This shows a very interesting geographical change. The coast of Somalia, the Gulf of Aden, the Arabian Sea, and the western Indian Ocean were extremely active areas in 2010/11, whereas there have now been only three incidents in the last two years. Does that mean that the areas are safe and mitigations are no longer required, or does it simply mean that the safety processes in place are working? The answer to this may become clearer as vessel operators start taking the risk of hiring cheaper and less well trained crews and holding off from properly hardening their vessels as they transit these ‘traditionally’ dangerous waters.
In the meantime, the Bay of Bengal around Bangladesh is now dotted with hijackings and kidnappings. These individual incidents are mostly against fishing vessels with lower ransom demands than when tankers and cargo vessels were being attacked in 2010-2011 but in some ways, this makes them more of a problem as they are unlikely to gain the same worldwide press coverage but they still have the same impact on the persons being kidnapped and their families.
So, what does all this mean? Is the threat of piracy going away? Probably not. But it is certainly changing. As has been the case for centuries, piracy will always exist while there are social and economic problems in existence which make it a viable way for a person to survive. Piracy can be mitigated against, showing figures of incidents reducing because pirates are dissuaded from attacking, but this is surely a case of treating the symptom rather than the cause, and once you remove the sticking plaster it is a matter of time before the problems return.
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